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The breakthrough will likely lie in the continued and gradual conversion of current gen gamers who may be turning to the Switch in order to clear out their old console collections. We're not convinced that having to pay for online benefits alone is encouraging, but we also see that as a result of Nintendo going 'back in time' and its cheaper online service comes free with the hardware itself. The release of both physical and digital download exclusives from Animal Crossing to Xenoblade Chronicles X during E3 2017 was a key moment in highlight the growth of the Switch and its appeal. It was also the first official acknowledgement of the platform from Nintendo: they were interested in showcasing the success of the Switch to the West.
However, it's becoming less clear that the Switch's success is resting on adding to the library, and that's been a core focus and advantage over the PS4 and Xbox One, with both those platforms still experiencing a library drought in recent years (in 2011, 2013, 2016 and then 2017, we currently stand at 2 PS4, 3 Xbox One and 0 Nintendo Switch for the US). The Switch may be more aimed at a nostalgia factor than a general audience. The introduction of new content all comes from the service, rather than from friends or third-party developers. And the poorer internet connection is not certain to dissuade players. We're also seeing a pivot away from download games in favour of a more 'instant on' feeling with the Switch by eliminating the need for setting up certain software.
And if that is the case, then the ultimate success of the Switch may not just be about creating a compelling game library, but more naturally tapping into a nostalgic (and profitable) market. One might argue that nostalgia is a multi-generational phenomenon, except that a Switch 'nostalgic' generation would probably 30-40 years old, the baby boomers who are the most nostalgic right now and perhaps best positioned to jump straight to Switch.
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